If someone confidently talks about 10% rent growth in one year, pause for a moment.
In today’s environment, even in Tier 1 markets with Class A properties, that kind of growth is ambitious — especially over the next couple of years.

Unless: • There’s a real, meaningful value-add strategy

• Competition is limited
• Population growth is genuinely accelerating
• And demand clearly outpaces new supply
— there is no guarantee rents will see dramatic increases.

As investors, it’s easy to get excited by upside projections. We all want strong growth. But disciplined underwriting means separating optimism from probability.

According to projections shared by Marcus & Millichap, rent growth across major metros is expected to be far more measured than the double-digit assumptions we sometimes see in pitch decks.

That doesn’t mean deals aren’t viable. It simply means the margin for error is thinner.

As stewards of your capital, our job isn’t to sell the most exciting story — it’s to stress test assumptions, protect downside, and make sure the numbers still work even if rent growth is modest.

Hope is not a strategy.
Discipline is.
Underwrite accordingly.